Sri Lanka Presidential Election 2019 (English Article)

Sri-Lankan-Presidential-Electin-2019-Redem

In advance of the Sri Lankan presidential election, which took place on November 16th, 2019, we conducted a survey on the Redem platform, asking participants to predict the outcome of the vote. The survey consisted of five questions related to the election and the presidential system in general.

Since two of our team members, Vinura and Asela, are originally from Sri Lanka, we have conducted an election forecast with 31 Sri Lankan locals.

The Results and Insights

Question 1:

Who do you think would be the next President-elect of Sri Lanka?

Result without using our Algorithm (conventional majority voting)

Our algorithm for weighting the votes in favor of better-informed individuals changes this result as follows:

As one can see in the second table, the result becomes even more evident in support of the second answer option after weighting the votes according to the average participant’s expert scores.

Prediction is consistent with the actual result: Gotabaya Rajapaksa

Question 2:

Will any candidate be able to get more than 50% of the valid votes?

Result without using our Algorithm (conventional majority voting)

Again, weighting the votes according to our algorithm, we receive this result:

Prediction is consistent with the actual result: YES

Question 3:

Who do you think would get the highest in preference vote (2nd vote)?

Result without using our Algorithm (conventional majority voting)

With the weighted votes, this is the result:

The majority vote became even more emphasized in this case.

Prediction is consistent with the actual result: Sajith Premadasa

Question 4:

Which candidate will receive the 3rd highest vote count?

Result without using our Algorithm (conventional majority voting)

The result after weighting:

This result is exciting because, after the weighting, the outcome of the vote changed from the third answer option to the first. In the official election results, the candidate who received the 3rd highest vote count is Anura Kumara Dissanayake. So for this question, one can say that our technology has improved the result, although the majority was wrong.

Prediction is consistent with the actual result: Anura Kumara Dissanayake

Question 5:

Will executive presidency be abolished after the Presidential Election 2019?

Result without using our Algorithm (conventional majority voting)

The result after weighting the votes according to the SPA principle:

For this question, the algorithm also emphasized the majority vote by raising the percentage of the majority selected answer.

Prediction is consistent with the actual result: NO it’s not yet abolished

All in all, you can see that even with this small sample of 31 respondents, we could improve the outcome of each question. It is another evidence of how powerful this technology works.

A big thank you to all the participants of this survey. We are looking forward to sharing exciting survey results with you in the future.

More information: https://redem.io